This story contains some of the best elements of what I like to bet on. Those elements include a team that has suffered a bad loss the previous week, uneven stats matchups and teams that play better during one half over another.
Case in point-
Oregon fits one of my "rebound teams" this week after suffering an ugly loss at home to Wash. St. The Ducks suffered 9 turnovers in this game which undoubtedly led to many points by the opposition. This situation creates what I like to call motivation to do well which oftentimes leads to beating the spread.
Let's take a look at some line items instead of reading through boring paragraphs.
-Oregon gives up an average of 59 yards rushing per game.
-Utah is a relatively balanced passing/rushing team so they may be able to get around Oregon's excellent rush defense by going to the pass.
-Oregon gains more yardage through passing (293 yards per game).
-Utah has been giving up yardage through the air (270 yards per game).
-Oregon has been holding opponents to an average of 13 points during the 1st half.
-Utah has been scoring an average of 12 points in the first half.
-Oregon has been scoring more in the 1st half than the 2nd half.
-Utah scores more in the 2nd half than the 1st half.
Summary:
Oregon is coming off a bad-beat which means that they have the motivation to do well, especially early since they are a 1st-half team. Utah, while doing well against some respectable teams this year, will not be able to contain Oregon's passing offense. Oregon's 1st half offense will continue to score more efficiently in the 1st half while Utah's offense continues to lag.
Oregon -1.5 (1st half)
Case in point-
Oregon fits one of my "rebound teams" this week after suffering an ugly loss at home to Wash. St. The Ducks suffered 9 turnovers in this game which undoubtedly led to many points by the opposition. This situation creates what I like to call motivation to do well which oftentimes leads to beating the spread.
Let's take a look at some line items instead of reading through boring paragraphs.
-Oregon gives up an average of 59 yards rushing per game.
-Utah is a relatively balanced passing/rushing team so they may be able to get around Oregon's excellent rush defense by going to the pass.
-Oregon gains more yardage through passing (293 yards per game).
-Utah has been giving up yardage through the air (270 yards per game).
-Oregon has been holding opponents to an average of 13 points during the 1st half.
-Utah has been scoring an average of 12 points in the first half.
-Oregon has been scoring more in the 1st half than the 2nd half.
-Utah scores more in the 2nd half than the 1st half.
Summary:
Oregon is coming off a bad-beat which means that they have the motivation to do well, especially early since they are a 1st-half team. Utah, while doing well against some respectable teams this year, will not be able to contain Oregon's passing offense. Oregon's 1st half offense will continue to score more efficiently in the 1st half while Utah's offense continues to lag.
Oregon -1.5 (1st half)
